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Episode 416: Listener Emails: One Miguel Cabrera, Many Mike Trouts
Date March 28, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about the Miguel Cabrera contract extension, bullpen usage, productive at-bats, multiple Mike Trouts, and more. Topics * Miguel Cabrera extension * MLB signing age vs. the NBA * Productive plate appearances * Increased LOOGY usage * Mike Trout clones * $1 billion contract timeline Intro Miguel Cabrera interview sound clip Banter Now that the season preview series has ended, Ben & Sam joke that they should preview minor league affiliates or College World Series teams. Email Questions * Eric: "Can I request a hot take on the Miguel Cabrera extension?" * Matt: "The NBA is always fighting to raise the age of incoming players. The logic is fairly simple; the higher the age a) the more information teams have before making a big investment and b) the closer to a player's prime is the first contract so less is spent on sub-prime years. MLB teams seem to have it the other way around, preferring to pay big money to a still uncertain prospect whenever possible given he's got the skill set. It could be a matter of the NBA not having a strong farm system but if so it would seem that they just go ahead and make one. Seems either it has to do with respective natures of the two sports or one of the two approaches is wrong. I certainly don't expect you to get into why the NBA does what it does but what are your thoughts on the matter from Major League Baseball's side?" * Andy: "There must be another way to express how to have a productive at-bat. I was wondering if you could name your top eight ways to a productive at-bat?" * Greg (Washington, D.C.): "So one thing I have always been curious about is how reliever usage has changed over the years, specifically the LOOGY idea. So my question is as follows: for each 10-year period since 1950 with the final years being 2010-13 which reliever is the leader in percentage of batters faced that are the same side of the plate as they are. For example lefties facing other lefties. I'm specifically curious to see how dramatically this has increased and who the current leader is from 2010-13." * Miles: "Let's imagine that the following two have happened. First, Mike Trout signs a deal that pays him $20 million a year for the next five years. Two, MLB has access to a machine that literally flash clones Mike Trout, so any team can have as many Trouts as they want as long as they pay them that same contract. Say you're the GM of a new expansion team that can tap into this Trout reservoir. Also in this exercise imagine that you can buy any other pieces for your ball club in free agency. How many Trouts do you buy at each payroll level: $50 million, $65 million, $75 million, $100 million, $200 million, and $5 billion?" * Dan: "How long until we get a contract that is most easily measured in billions?" Play Index * Inspired by Greg's question, Ben uses the Play Index to find out the pitchers in each decade who lead in percentage of batters faced that are on the same side of the plate as the pitcher (ie: lefty on lefty matchup). * The percentages for each decade, setting a minimum of 100 innings pitched are: 31.7% (1950s), 37.8% (1960s), 38.7% (1970s), 38% (1980s), 46.3% (1990s), 57% (2000s). From 2010-13 the current leader (minimum 50 IP) is at 71.7%. Notes * Sam refers to his comments on Miguel Cabrera's extension as a "hot pondering". * Miguel Cabrera signed a 10-year, $292 million extension with the Tigers. * Sam is unsure what NBA rookies and developing players are paid, but notes that prospects are paid relatively little compared to full time MLB players. * The Rangers' system seeks for teams to have 17 productive plate appearances per game. The eight ways they identify to have a productive plate appearance are: hit, walk, hit by pitch or catcher interference, sacrifice fly, sacrifice bunt, advance lead runner with an out, advance lead runner with an error, and eight pitch at-bat. * Sam contends that the responsibility for catcher interference is 80-20 weighted towards the batter. In later episodes he would highlight Jacoby Ellsbury's record for reaching on catching interference. * Sam notes that in a league with many Mike Trout clones the overall level of play (and what replacement level is) would be elevated significantly. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 416: Listener Emails: One Miguel Cabrera, Many Mike Trouts * Lakeland Man Wasn't Who He Said He Was by Eric Pera Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes